RAPID - Round 1 - The Probability of Rapid Climate Change Project

Introduction

We propose to assess the probability of rapid climate change under future climate scenarios, in particular different greenhouse gas concentration profiles. We will use Bayesian statistical methods to synthesize all sources of uncertainty using expert knowledge, ocean and climate data, and informative runs of coupled ocean/atmosphere models, applying recently developed methodology for the analysis of large slow computer simulators. We will start with an intermediate-complexity model, C-GOLDSTEIN, using this as a stepping-stone to analysing a full climate GCM such as HADCM3.

Project Duration: 1 Jan 2004 - 31 Dec 2007

This project is funded by NERC - Grant Ref. NER/T/S/2002/00450 - through the RAPID Climate Change NERC directed mode programme.

Availability of data

This project will use the C-Goldstein coupled ocean-atmosphere GCM and the higher resolution HadCM3. Ensemble runs will be computed for the energy-balanced case and for scenarios extending over time periods of 100-150 years (with gas emissions from Tyndall Centre).

Access to data and information

Data and software supplied from this project to the BADC will be stored in the BADC RAPID archive.

Access to the archive is currently restricted to participants to this particular project. If you are a programme participant and would like to access this RAPID project data, then please apply for access^* to the RAPID data.

You will be requested to abide by the RAPID Climate Change Data Policy.
Data management, availability and use are ruled by the RAPID Climate Change Programme Data Management Plan (PDF document).
Access to Hadley Centre model data held at the BADC is subject to the signature of the NERC-Met Office agreement.

^* Note that to apply for access to this dataset, you should first register as a BADC user (anyone is allowed to register). If you are already a registered BADC user, skip this step. If you have forgotten your BADC user ID and/or password, please contact the BADC helpdesk at badc@rl.ac.uk. To register as a new BADC user, please follow the instructions online.

Citation

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Date of citation

Who to contact

This RAPID project is led by Mr Peter Challenor, National Oceanographic Centre, with co-investigators at the National Oceanographic Centre, Durham University and the University of Sheffield.

General queries about these pages or browsing the data should be directed to the BADC Support line.

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