UN Climate Change Bulletin #9 (41K) United Nations Climate Change Bulletin Issue 9, 4th Quarter 1995 What's Inside? IPCC's new assessment report Capacity Building with CC:TRAIN Progress report on Berlin Mandate How OECD secretariat supports Convention Agenda 21 revisited Calendar of events Published quarterly by the interim secretariat for the UN Climate Change Convention, the Secretariat of the UNEP/WMO Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and the UNEP/WMO Information Unit on Climate Change (IUCC). This newsletter provides general information only and does not represent the official views of the United Nations or any of its specialised agencies. Readers are welcome to reprint the contents giving appropriate credit. For a free subscription please contact IUCC, UNEP, Geneva Executive Center, CP 356, 1219 Chatelaine Switzerland. ****************************************************************** IPCC Rome plenary finalizes Second Assessment Report - Narasimhan Sundararaman, Secretary, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) The full plenary of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) met in Rome at the invitation of the Italian Ministry of the Environment from 11-15 December 1995 and finalized the 1995 IPCC Second Assessment report for publication. Participants included some 300 scientists, experts, and government representatives from over 120 countries. Synthesis and summaries The plenary reviewed and approved the 1995 IPCC Synthesis. The Synthesis is a 11,000-word document that brings together the scientific, technical and socio-economic analyses in the Second Assessment Report relevant to interpreting Article 2 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Article 2 contains the Convention's ultimate objective, which is "to achieve ... stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Such a level should be achieved within a time-frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner." The plenary also reviewed and accepted the contributions of the IPCC's three working groups, including their Summaries for Policymakers to the Second Assessment Report. The Working Groups had adopted their respective summaries and contributions at earlier meetings. Working Group I assessed the current scientific understanding of climate change, particularly the effect of human activities. Working Group II explored the environmental and socio-economic impacts of climate change, as well as response options for reducing net greenhouse gas emissions and for managing the impacts of climate change. Working Group III made a technical assessment of information related to the economic and social dimensions of climate change. How to order The full Second Assessment Report therefore comprises the Synthesis, three Summaries for Policymakers, plus three full-length volumes, some 2,000 pages and 10,000 references in all. Around 2,000 scientists and experts world-wide contributed to the writing and reviewing of the Report. The three contributions of the IPCC working groups to the Second Assessment Report will be available in early 1996 from Cambridge University Press. A volume containing the Synthesis and the three Summaries for Policymakers will be published by the IPCC Secretariat. The Synthesis, the Summaries for Policymakers, and ordering information for the print version will be posted on the Internet at the following web sites: http//www.unep.ch/ipcc/ipcc-0.html and http://www.wmo.ch. For additional information on ordering, please contact the IPCC Secretariat, c/o WMO, C.P. 2300, 1211 Geneva 2, Switzerland. ****************************************************************** CC:TRAIN Phase II to focus on national communications Gao Pronove, Programme Manager, United Nations Institute for Training and Research (UNITAR), and Silke Speier, Research Associate, CC:TRAIN Programme. The CC:TRAIN programme was launched in 1993 to promote the long-term implementation of the Climate Change Convention by developing countries. By focusing on education and the training of national policy-makers and other stakeholders, the programme aims to maximise public involvement in realizing the Convention's goals. It also seeks to strengthen institutions and to build capacity for preparing the national communications that developing countries must submit to the Conference of the Parties to the Convention. CC:TRAIN is funded primarily by the Global Environment Facility (GEF) and is executed by UNITAR, which works closely with the Convention Secretariat, the UN Development Programme, and the Information Unit on Climate Change. Its activities are carried out by country teams supported by a regional network of partner institutions. CC:TRAIN has now completed its two-year pilot phase and is starting a new three-year phase. Phase II The pilot phase helped to establish country teams composed of people from many different sectors and disciplines. The role of these teams is to lead the policy dialogue needed for developing a national implementation strategy. The pilot phase also produced a CC:TRAIN Workshop Package. This package contains extensive material and will be used as a training tool to enable the country teams and others to run workshops on climate change and the Convention. While the pilot phase concentrated on three countries --Lithuania, Vietnam, and Zimbabwe -- Phase II will include 18. They are Benin, Chad, Nigeria, and Senegal in Africa; Bolivia, Cuba, Ecuador, Paraguay, and Peru in Latin America; and the Cook Islands, Fiji, Kiribati, Marshall Islands, Nauru, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Tuvalu, and Vanuatu in the Pacific region. In addition to expanding the range of countries, the second phase will move beyond sensitizing people and promoting dialogue to providing practical assistance for carrying out a key Convention obligation -- producing national communications. Developing countries must submit their first communications within three years of becoming a Party. (Least developed countries may make their initial communication at their discretion.) These communications should include a national inventory of greenhouse gas emissions, a general description of steps taken or planned to implement the Convention, and any other information that the Party considers relevant. The challenge for many countries is that their institutional framework for implementing the Convention is not obvious. There is also a lack of awareness among policy-makers about the issue. Preparing a national communication, of course, demands technical knowledge as well as adequate information about climate change and policy options. It requires articulating the benefits to the country of carrying out its treaty commitments, identifying sources of support (both local and external), and mobilising people from within the government and other sectors. Country teams To help governments meet the challenge of formulating their communications, Phase II will adopt both a country team approach and a regional approach (see diagram). Each country team will be housed by a host agency designated by the government. The team will include national experts from various government agencies, industry, NGOs, and the research and academic community. It will be responsible for organising the CC:TRAIN activities and preparing country studies, the national implementation strategy, and the national communications. The CC:TRAIN programme will offer country teams the resources and training they need (in English, French, or Spanish) for undertaking the required activities and tasks. In addition, regional networks of partners will be created to deliver programme support, training, and technical assistance to participating countries in that region. This should ensure that the technical assistance provided iss relevant, cost-effective, and timely. Each regional network will also be available to aid other projects and programmes designed to help countries formulate their initial communications. In this way, countries not included in phase II will nevertheless be able to start using the services and materials developed for CC:TRAIN. These regional partner institutions will be established in early 1996. By mid-1996, a calendar of training workshops will be established for each region. These workshops will address the issues of preparing national greenhouse gas inventories, assessing vulnerability and adaptation, and analysing mitigation options. They will be organized by the regional partners in cooperation with other institutions and will be open to participants from other countries. Watch this space The CC:TRAIN programme plans to promote communication amongst CC:TRAIN focal points through the UN Climate Change Bulletin. In addition to updates on the progress of Phase II, it will publish announcements of workshops and other activities plus substantive articles by authors from CC:TRAIN participating countries. Comments from readers are welcome. For further information, please contact Gao Pronove, CC:TRAIN Programme Manager, UNITAR, Palais des Nations, 1211 Geneva, Switzerland; tel: +41 22 788-1417 or 979-9483, fax: +41 22 733-1383, email: gpronove.unfccc@unep.ch CC:TRAIN's six components The country team approach and the regional approach are built into the following six steps for achieving CC:TRAIN's immediate objectives. 1. Establish a network of regional partners 2. Establish a country team 3. Facilitate a process for developing national policies 4. Plan and undertake country studies 5. Prepare the national strategy for implementation and the national communication 6. Share CC:TRAIN resources with global partners ****************************************************************** Convention Parties start work on future commitments Michael Zammit Cutajar, Executive Secretary, Climate Change Convention The new "process" launched by the Berlin Mandate is just beginning, but already one can see the outlines of the difficult debate that lies ahead. If anything, the discussions on stronger commitments for developed countries will prove more challenging than the original Convention negotiations. There are several reasons for this. First, the idea of an overall target for emissions levels -- also a key element in the Convention talks -- is joined now by the idea of achieving emissions reductions through coordinated policies and measures. This new focus on specifics such as standards, taxes, and regulations introduces a new complexity. It also involves real and identifiable consequences for real and identifiable groups. More broadly, it raises the prospect of new commitments that could significantly affect trade and investment. Second, most developed country Parties do not seem to be on track to achieving their current aim of returning greenhouse gas emissions to 1990 levels by the year 2000. At the same time, their legislatures and electorates are deeply concerned about short-term economic growth and economic deregulation. The climate change issue is not yet at the top of their agenda. This may change. The new assessment report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC -- see p. 1) reveals that scientific uncertainty -- a major barrier to action -- is being steadily reduced. The report goes further than ever before by stating that scientists now believe that "the balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climate." This significant conclusion will certainly contribute to mobilizing political support for stronger commitments. The Berlin Mandate (AGBM) Since the First Session of the Conference of the Parties (COP-1) in Berlin last March, the Convention process has moved to a new rhythm. Until Berlin, discussions were carried out by a Committee whose two working groups met concurrently for two-week sessions about thrice a year. Now the COP meets once a year, and the intersessional work is carried out by four subsidiary bodies. All four bodies have held their first sessions and organized their work. While each body has its own dynamics, their work streams intermingle and are fully coordinated by the COP Bureau. Together they will hold about 10 meetings before reporting on their progress at COP-2, to be held in Geneva from 8 - 19 July 1996. The Ad hoc Group on the Berlin Mandate (AGBM) was established by COP-1 to carry out a "process to enable governments to take appropriate action for the period beyond 2000, including a strengthening of developed country commitments, through the adoption of a protocol or another legal instrument". It was agreed that the AGBM's work should be completed as early as possible so that the results can be adopted at COP-3 in 1997. The AGBM met for the first time from 21-25 August. With Ambassador Razl Estrada-Oyuela of Argentina in the Chair, the AGBM agreed on a schedule and an approach to its work for the next two years. The second meeting (AGBM-2), held from 30 October to 3 November, pushed the process forward by getting the substantive options and issues for future debate out on the table. This meeting launched the "analysis and assessment" of "policies and measures" that developed countries could adopt after the year 2000 in order to limit emissions and protect carbon "sinks" and "reservoirs" (such as forests). These policies and measures could be included in the future legal instrument. The participants acknowledged the wide range of possible policies and measures, and they agreed to continue analysing and assessing them in order to produce a more definitive list. However, while some countries prefer to continue with an in-depth study of all options, others would rather move more quickly into negotiating specific commitments. The emerging priorities among policies and measures reflect a preference for controlling emissions through technological solutions (rather than changed consumption patterns). A technological strategy for emissions limitation implies giving some sort of guidance to the market to generate and encourage the technologies needed. This in turn implies that Parties should adopt common policies and measures and implement them in a coordinated manner. Possible objectives AGBM-2 also considered possible objectives for the protocol. The Berlin Mandate calls for setting "quantified limitation and reduction objectives within specified time-frames, such as 2005, 2010 and 2020", for greenhouse gas emissions by developed countries. Some countries, including those with economies in transition, have raised the issue of having differentiated objectives for different groups of developed countries. Together with the work on policies and measures, progress on how to formulate the objectives will enable Parties to start considering the protocol's ultimate form and content. Discussions were in fact initiated on how to structure a protocol. The European Union tabled a draft protocol outline, which now joins company with an earlier draft protocol proposed by the Association of Small Island States (AOSIS). While the Berlin Mandate process will not consider new commitments for developing countries, the meeting did consider how to continue advancing the implementation of the existing general commitments that both developed and developing countries have under the Convention. In this context the Group of 77 and China will convene a forum for sharing experiences on the national communications that developing countries will start submitting in March 1997. One concern of many developing countries is that sufficient funds for producing these communications be made available in time. The AGBM will next meet from 5-8 March 1996. It will consider, among other topics, the relevant aspects of the IPCC's Second Assessment Report and a new report on innovative and efficient technologies and know-how. In addition, failure to agree on the structure of the AGBM's bureau means that this procedural issue remains on the agenda. SBSTA and SBI The Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice is (together with SBI) one of two permanent subsidiary bodies established by the Convention (AGBM and AG13 were established by the COP). Its role is to serve as the link between the information and assessments provided by expert sources on the one hand, and the policy-oriented needs of the COP on the other. The SBSTA will achieve its maximum potential if can operate as a non-politicized group of experts. The first meeting, from 28-30 August, elected officers, including Tibor Farags of Hungary as Chairman. It was dedicated primarily to setting out a work programme through 1997 and identifying what inputs are desired from the IPCC. However, the group failed to agree on the structure and membership of the technical advisory panels (TAPs) that are to support to its work. Among other activities, the SBSTA will soon start discussing the guidelines to be used by the developing countries in preparing their first national communications. It will also conduct an inventory of available technologies that will be a valuable input for the AGBM. The next meeting will be held from 27 February - 4 March 1996. The Subsidiary Body on Implementation (SBI), whose role is to assist the COP in assessing and reviewing the Convention's implementation, met from 31 August to 1 September. It addressed organizational, institutional, and budgetary matters. It elected officers, including Chairman Mohamed M. Ould El Ghaouth of Mauritania. The SBI also considered a draft memorandum of understanding between the COP and the Council of the Global Environment Facility (GEF), which is the interim operating entity for the Convention's financial mechanism. The SBI recommended that COP-2 adopt the memorandum and accept the working relationship that it outlines between the two organizations. The next meeting will be from 27 February - 4 March. Article 13 (AG13) The Ad hoc Group on Article 13 (AG13) has met once, from 30-31 October. This Group was set up in response to Article 13 of the Convention, which calls on the Parties to "consider the establishment of a multilateral consultative process for resolution of questions regarding the implementation of the Convention." The Chair is Mr. Patrick Szell of the UK. This first meeting of experts considered possible approaches to its task. Article 13 could provide innovative tools for assisting the implementation of the Convention. In order to identify all the options, the meeting drafted a questionnaire for distribution to Parties and observers. The Group agreed to reconvene in July 1996. Towards COP-2 The post-Berlin process is in many ways a new beginning. As in the early days of the Convention negotiations, back in 1991 and 1992, these first meetings are witnessing a good deal of procedural work, exploration, and tactical positioning. But just as the Framework Convention was drafted under the pressure of an Earth Summit deadline, the Berlin Mandate process too faces a tight schedule -- it must be completed by COP-3 in 1997. The work pace must therefore remain steady if the implementation of existing commitments and the elaboration of new ones is to remain on track. In July 1996, just six months from now, COP-2 in Geneva will offer a vital midway mark for measuring the Berlin Mandate's vitality. ****************************************************************** OECD research update: Annex I Expert Group and GHG inventories Jan Corfee-Morlot, Bo Lim and Fiona Mullins, OECD Environment Directorate The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has actively contributed to the climate change policy debate since 1991. It has also addressed a wide range of technical issues. For example, the OECD Secretariat has published extensively on the "cost" of responding to climate change over different time periods and with different emissions constraints. It has also studied economic instruments and benefits to inform member countries about the range of available policy response options and their likely effects. Less well known is the work that the OECD has undertaken with the International Energy Agency (IEA) and with other intergovernmental organisations to promote the implementation of the Convention. The two main strands of this work are the IPCC/IEA/OECD Programme on National Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Inventories, and the Annex I Expert Group on the Climate Change Convention. These activities are noteworthy for at least two reasons. First, they take a highly practical approach to designing products that can help all Parties to implement the Convention. Second, they are managed by, and aim to influence, a much wider audience than the OECD members themselves. National GHG Inventories Under the Convention, each Party must regularly submit "national communications", including a national GHG inventory. A GHG inventory lists the quantities of each greenhouse gas that are emitted by various sources (e.g. transport or agriculture) or removed by various sinks (e.g. forests). In order to make the various national inventories comparable, it is necessary to use consistent methodologies and common reporting formats. Between 1991 and 1994, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the OECD, and the IEA collaborated on the IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories. Over 600 copies have been distributed or sold world-wide in English, French, and Spanish (and soon in Russian). Some 60 countries have used the IPCC methodology for their GHG inventories, including China, India, and Russia. Software is distributed by the OECD upon request and may soon be available on the internet. Phase II of the inventory programme was launched in 1995. This new phase is focusing on methods development, technical outreach, and the transfer of operational activities from the IPCC to the Convention's Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice (SBSTA). The purpose of methods development is to ensure that the IPCC Guidelines reflect the most current scientific knowledge for all major anthropogenic sources and sinks of GHGs. It also ensures that they can be systematically applied to all regions of the world in order generate high-quality emission data. To achieve these objectives, five expert groups containing over 130 specialists are addressing key methodological issues in the areas of industrial processes and "new gases" (PFCs, SF6, HFCs) fuel combustion, agricultural soils, land-use change and forestry, and waste. The five groups and their expected products are summarised in Table 1. Expert Group recommendations for the IPCC Guidelines (methodologies) will be discussed at a workshop to be held in December on Greenhouse Gas Emission from Agricultural Soils, Industrial Processes and Waste. A second Workshop will be held in February or March on Land Use Change and Forestry and Fuel Combustion. In addition, the IPCC/IEA/IPCC team is performing an in-house analysis of Annex I country inventories. (Annex I to the Convention is a list of 24 OECD members and 12 countries with economies in transition who have additional treaty commitments.) It will also draw upon results from similar US and UNEP country studies of national inventories in South America, Southern Africa, Asia, and Eastern Europe. This review will identify new sources of data and suggestions for improving the Guidelines. Phase II is currently scheduled to continue until April 1996. If the IPCC approves the extension for Phase II at its December 1995 Plenary, the expert groups' recommendations will be subjected to an international IPCC peer review. Once endorsed by the IPCC and cleared by the Convention's subsidiary bodies, the final recommendations will be presented for consideration to the Conference of Parties of the Convention. Annex I Expert Group Another activity of the OECD is its support for the Annex I Expert Group, which was established in 1993 at the request of OECD Member countries. It is an ad-hoc group operating in association with the OECD Environment Policy Committee. Its work programme, operated jointly with IEA since 1994, is principally supported by grants from Member countries. The Group's earlier products included recommendations on the content and format of the first national communications from Annex I Parties and on the first review of national communications from Annex I Parties. (In addition to the GHG inventories, these national communications include a description of policies and measures to limit greenhouse gas emissions, a projection of how these measures will affect future emissions, and a description of educational, research, and other activities.) The present purpose of the Annex I Expert Group is to analyse key issues -- it does not act as a negotiating forum for Annex I Parties or prejudge nations' preferences. It provides inputs for consideration by the Convention's subsidiary bodies, particularly the Ad-hoc Group on the Berlin Mandate (AGBM). In response to the Berlin Mandate, which launches negotiations for new developed-country commitments in the post-2000 period, the OECD and the IEA asked the Annex I Expert Group to work on issues related to possible future commitments. The new work programme focuses initially on policies and measures for common action and on methodologies for projecting emissions and estimating the effects of various measures. The overall objective of the Project on Policies and Measures for Common Action is to broadly assess the relative potential of a range of policies and measures for common action by Annex 1 Parties. At its September meeting, the Group considered over 100 measures and selected around a dozen for further study. The selected measures cover the energy supply, transport, energy end use, and agriculture and forestry sectors, and include a range of voluntary, regulatory, financial and economic instruments. All greenhouse gases are considered. More recently, at its November meeting, the Group also prioritised measures for analysis and assessment; approved a budget; and agreed on a schedule for the analysis. Progress to date includes the development of an initial study and three pilot case studies. The Project has also developed a draft framework for the analysis and assessment of policies and measures. This framework identifies a range of issues for analysis in the study of each policy or measure. It was recently submitted to the AGBM. The analysis of policies and measures will proceed in two tranches (see Table 2). The first tranche is designed to produce a set of studies for the second session of the Conference of the Parties (COP-2) in July 1996. The analysis is to begin immediately, subject to the availability of grant funding. The second tranche of work would begin in early 1996 and would aim to complete a second set of studies sometime after COP-2. The Group also endorsed a methodologies project which aims to produce a paper in early 1996 summarising key issues in projecting GHG emissions and estimating the effects of measures. For more information on national GHG inventories, contact Bo Lim, Environment Directorate, OECD Tel : (33.1) 45..24.78.94, Fax: (33.1) 45 .24.78.76, Email: Bo.Lim@OECD.ORG Table 1: Expert Groups and Expected Products Expert group Expected products Fuel Combustion Investigate a method for non-CO2 gases using a bottom-up approach; Review of emission factors for mobile and stationary sources; Review of CO, reference method. Industrial Processes and New Gases New method for fluorinated gases (PFCs, HFCs, SF6) and for CO2 from metal and carbide production; Additional methods for ozone precursors (NMVOC, CO), N2O and CO, from industrial processes and SOx from fuel combustion. Land Use Change and Forestry New method for wood products; Review of land cover classification and biomass default data; Guidelines on the use of remote sensing. possible inclusion of particulates and other non-CO2 gases from biomass burning. Agricultural Soils Significantly revised N2O method. Development of a CO2 method . Waste Review of CH4 emission data for landfills (including open dumps) and wastewater; Incorporation of time release function into the current CH4 methodology for landfills. Table 2:List of policies and measures for the "Common Action" study, Annex I Expert Group on the FCCC Tranche I Tranche II Sustainable transport CO2 emissions from Infrastructure issues vehicles Alternative fuels Other issues Energy market reform Market barriers/market Penetration of access renewables including R&D Full cost pricing Economic/fiscal Subsidies removal Bunker fuels instruments Taxation (i.e. carbon/energy) Demand-side efficiency VA with energy-intensive VA with electric industries utilities (end use) Product standards Labelling Sustainable Development of options Best practice guidelines agriculture/forestry for best practices for GHG reduction Other Financing infrastructure Conversion efficiency for EITs VA with electric utilities (generation) Abbreviations: VA - Voluntary approaches; EIT - Economies in Transition Announcing workshop on NGO inputs Drawing all stakeholders into the Convention process will help Parties to implement their commitments more effectively and to elaborate policies and measures. The International Academy of the Environment, with guidance from the Convention Secretariat, will therefore convene a workshop focusing on mechanisms to develop and strengthen arrangements between and among Parties and environmental organizations, business, and local authorities. The workshop will take place on 2 March 1996 at the Palais des Nations in Geneva, Switzerland. For more information, please contact Mr. Kevin Hill, UNFCCC Secretariat, tel. (41-22) 979 9319, fax (41-22) 979 9034, or e-mail secretariat.unfccc@unep.ch. ****************************************************************** Protecting the Atmosphere: A post-Rio checkup -- Alex Alusa, Climate Unit, United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) Three and a half years after UNCED, it is instructive to reflect on what was agreed and what has been achieved so far. As the task master for Chapter 9 of Agenda 21 -- "Protection of the Atmosphere" -- UNEP will submit such an analysis to the next meeting of the Commission on Sustainable Development (CSD). This article summarizes some of our key findings concerning climate change. Chapter 9 contains four programme areas. While two of them -- transboundary atmospheric pollution, and preventing stratospheric ozone depletion -- are not directly linked to climate change, the following two are: * Addressing the uncertainties: improving the scientific basis for decision-making; and * Promoting sustainable development: (i) energy development, efficiency, and consumption; (ii) transportation; (iii) industrial development; and (iv) terrestrial and marine resource development and land use. Improving the science The complexity of climate dynamics, and the fact that the impacts of today's emissions are only felt in the future but once started can persist for a long time, present a major challenge to those providing information to decision-makers about climate change. For all atmospheric issues, environmental effects result from the accumulation of pollutants or gases over many decades. In some cases the effects can persist for many decades to millennia even after corrective measures are taken. Projecting how this will impact human society and ecosystems requires an extensive understanding of the global geosphere and biosphere. This means that policy-makers need credible long-term projections of potential impacts so that they can take action early enough to avoid environmental harm that may be, for all practical purposes, irreversible. Furthermore, detailed and complex information must be condensed, simplified, and transmitted to policy-makers in a form that facilitates decision-making without seeming to dictate policy which, in the end, must be based on value judgments. These difficulties notwithstanding, there has been steady progress over the past several years towards an improved basis for policy decisions, particularly in the areas of ozone depletion and global climate change. National research programmes have provided a better understanding of atmospheric processes and the impact of human activities on the atmospheric environment. These programmes are also shedding new light on how an altered atmosphere may affect people and their environment. At the same time, international assessments of this improved knowledge base are helping to promote an international consensus for action. In particular, the ongoing assessments by the WMO/UNEP Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) have provided consensus reports from the world's leading experts on all aspects of global climate change. The IPCC assessments cover atmospheric science, impacts, adaptation and mitigation options, technology opportunities, and social and economic implications. This comprehensive coverage provides a strong basis for informed decision-making. IPCC assessments have helped underpin the recent agreement that there is a need for further measures beyond the commitments already contained in the Climate Change Convention. Equally important, they have focused the attention of the scientific and technical community on decision-makers' need for even more rapid progress in reducing uncertainties. The IPCC assessments also contribute to building scientific and technical expertise in developing countries. Nevertheless, the level of scientific and technical expertise in developing countries for protecting the environment is far from satisfactory. Building capacity in developing countries should therefore remain a priority issue in the coming years. The focus on policy-maker requirements should also remain a priority. Continued progress in reducing uncertainties will increasingly involve better information in the areas of impacts and the social sciences. Unfortunately, these areas are grossly underfunded at the national level and there is inadequate coordination of activities at the international level. Promoting sustainable development As described in Agenda 21, activities for addressing global climate change are central to sustainable development. Progress in this area has been made at both within countries and internationally. The Climate Change Convention has been ratified by 145 countries, and a growing number of those countries have developed national action plans for implementing their commitments. Most significantly, there is general agreement among the Parties to the Convention that further measures will be required to achieve its ultimate objective. This resulted in the Berlin Mandate of March 1995 launching a process aimed at strengthening developed country commitments through a protocol or other legal instrument. The results of this process are scheduled for adoption at the third session of the Conference of the Parties in 1997. Thus, there is a trend of increasing commitment to action. However, atmospheric concentrations and emissions of the major greenhouse gases continue to grow. Projections suggest that, in the absence of a concerted international effort, they will continue to increase, committing us to an essentially irreversible global environmental change -- with no clear understanding of the consequences. Scientific uncertainty and the link between improved living standards and greenhouse gas emissions are the primary impediments to action. Stronger commitments to research and develop new energy sources and to improve energy efficiency could decouple living standards from greenhouse gas emissions and thus remove one major obstacle. Next steps Looking back to Rio from today's vantage point, it is clear that some progress has been achieved. However, there are three major areas that require much more attention by the international community. First, developing countries need further assistance and encouragement to contribute to the protection of the global climate. Second, there should be a stronger focus on the linkages between individual issues. For example, many of the activities that involve phasing out ozone-depleting substances also use significant amounts of energy. Some of the CFC substitutes (notably HCFCs) are greenhouse gases. Care must be taken to manage greenhouse gas emissions during the phase-out of the ozone-depleting substances. Third, increasing attention should be given to tackling environmental problems as resource management issues. Currently most regional and international agreements adopt the more traditional approach of simply avoiding or correcting specific environmental impacts. Both ozone-depleting substances and greenhouse gases, for example, might be managed more effectively as part of the broader issues of industry and of energy production and consumption. ****************************************************************** Convention Calendar 1996 26 Feb, Geneva Workshop on communications from non-Annex 1 Parties 27 Feb - 4 March, Geneva SBSTA, second session SBI, second session 28 Feb (p.m.), Geneva AGBM Workshop on policies and measures 2 March, Geneva Workshop on mechanisms for NGO inputs 4 March (p.m.), Geneva AGBM Workshop on QELROS (quantified emission limitation reduction objectives) 5 - 8 March, Geneva AGBM, third session 8- 19 July, Geneva COP 2, including: AGBM, fourth session SBSTA, third session SBI, third session Ad Hoc Group on Article 13 (AG13), second session For more information, please contact the UNFCCC secretariat at Geneva Executive Center, 11-13 chemin des Animones, 1219 Chatelaine, Switzerland. Tel: (41-22) 979 9111. Fax: (41-22) 979 9034. E-mail:secretariat.unfccc@unep.ch